Pakistan power cuts double as hydro slump upends supply plans

ISLAMABAD/SINGAPORE: Pakistan’s electricity shortfall doubled this week as hydropower output slumped, Power Minister Awais Leghari told Reuters, upending plans to minimise power outages caused by LNG supply disruptions from the Iran war.

Hydropower output was 48% lower this week than the same period a year ago as provinces have not been requesting release of water from dams, with widespread rains reducing the need for irrigation, Leghari said in an interview on Thursday.

The electricity shortfall, which doubled to 3,400 megawatts this week, accounts for over a sixth of Pakistan’s total demand, and has caused six to seven hours of power outages in parts of northern Pakistan this week and disrupted telecommunications.

Pakistan, which is trying to mediate an end to the Iran war, expected a minimal impact from a halt to LNG imports due to the conflict compared with widespread outages after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That assessment did not factor in a hydropower output decline.

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“We couldn’t afford very high LNG spot prices, and we thought that hydropower would support us, but it took a dip and that’s why we have this excessive load shedding,” Leghari said.

‘Disciplined ourselves as a nation’

Leghari expects hydropower supply to improve but did not say by how much and declined to provide a timeline, adding that all unscheduled outages are confined to the north and are occurring outside solar hours.

Still, Pakistan has no immediate plans to buy LNG on the spot market, he said, adding that the country will continue to bank on fuel oil and a resumption in hydropower output to keep outages minimal.

“The cargoes to be offloading that LNG and then all the other expenses of the terminal.. that easily adds another $4-$5 to the spot price. So I think furnace oil might be a little bit cheaper,” Leghari told Reuters.

“We just disciplined ourselves as a nation to be able to bear the discomfort of it and not let the prices actually push up inflation,” he said.

After the suspension of Qatari LNG supplies, Pakistan faced an electricity shortfall of up to 2,500 MW, but partly offset that by running its largely idle furnace oil-based plants at full tilt.

But as hydropower output nearly halved and domestic gas-fired capacity of 500 MW went offline due to technical problems, the shortfall surged to 3,400 MW, Leghari said.

Pakistan has sufficient crude reserves which can be refined to produce enough fuel oil in the near-term, Leghari said, and expected hydropower supply to improve once provinces begin drawing water for monsoon crop planting.