President Donald Trump ends the third week of the Iran war confronting a crisis that seems to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are surging, the United States stands isolated from allies and more troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise the war would be only a “short excursion.”
A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan. But his declaration on Friday that the battle “was Militarily WON” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.
Trump, who took office promising to keep the US out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of a conflict he helped to initiate.
The lack of a clear exit strategy carries risks both for his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.
“Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s his biggest source of frustration.”
A White House official challenged that characterization, with many of Iran’s top leaders eliminated in targeted killings, most of its navy sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal largely destroyed.
“This has been an undisputed military success,” the official said.
The limits of Trump’s power — diplomatically, militarily and politically — were thrown into sharp relief over the past week.
He was caught off-guard by the resistance of fellow NATO members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. With the president not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides have advised Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the military operation’s scope, said one person close to the discussions.
But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Trump. In the view of some analysts, allies’ unwillingness reflects not only their reluctance over entanglement in a war they were not consulted on, but a backlash against his belittling of traditional US alliances since his return to office 14 months ago. Differences with Israel also have begun surfacing, with Trump insisting that he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the strike had indeed been coordinated with the US
Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury with no clear sign of which path he might take, analysts say. He could go all-in and intensify the US offensive, possibly even seizing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to hunt for missile launchers. But that would risk a long-term military commitment that the American public would mostly oppose. Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for now, Trump could declare victory and try to walk away, which could alienate Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded, hostile Iran - one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over shipping in the Gulf. Iran has denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported on Friday that the US military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself.
Comments