Germany’s Merz faces second state election test on Sunday

BERLIN: German Chancellor Friedrich ​Merz’s conservatives face their second electoral test this month on Sunday when they hope ‌to unseat the centre-left Social Democrats, their coalition partner at the national level, in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate.

For Merz, however, battling to shore up Western support for Ukraine and facing the looming threat of an energy ​shock caused by the Iran war, an election he once counted on to boost his ​domestic support has become uncomfortably tight.

Following a narrow loss to the environmental ⁠Greens in the neighbouring state of Baden-Wuerttemberg on March 8, the latest survey gave Gordon Schnieder ​from Merz’s Christian Democrat (CDU) party a two-point lead over the sitting Social Democrat (SPD) state premier, Alexander ​Schweitzer.

For the SPD, which suffered its worst-ever state election result in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Rhineland-Palatinate election is a crucial opportunity to stem the steady slide in support which has seen it fall behind the far-right Alternative for ​Germany (AfD) party in nationwide opinion polls.

The western state of Rhineland-Palatinate, one of Germany’s main wine-growing regions ​and home to chemicals giant BASF, has been hit by economic stagnation in recent years.

But polls have shown ‌Schweitzer ⁠narrowing the commanding lead held by the CDU at the beginning of the year, offering the SPD some hope of holding on to power after the disastrous result in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where it won just 5.5% of the vote.

Three more German state elections this year

The SPD has ruled Rhineland-Palatinate, ​which borders France, Belgium ​and Luxembourg, for 35 ⁠years and losing control would deepen the air of crisis that has overshadowed the party since the collapse of former SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ​governing coalition in Berlin in 2024.

Merz insisted following the narrow defeat ​for his party ⁠in Baden-Wuerttemberg that the result would not affect the work of the coalition in Berlin, and commentators say a CDU/SPD coalition in Rhineland-Palatinate is a clear possibility in the event of a narrow ⁠result.

The ​Rhineland-Palatinate election is the second of five state elections this ​year, ahead of closely watched races in September in Berlin and the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt, where the ​far-right AfD is hoping to win its first major election.