Saudi Red Sea oil exports set to jump to 3.8 million bpd in March, shipping data shows

OSLO: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil loadings at its Yanbu port on the Red Sea are set to surge to a record 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, shipping data showed on Wednesday, after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran effectively shut exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

The kingdom, the world’s largest oil exporter, can pump up to 7 million bpd to Yanbu through its East-West pipeline, allowing it to avoid sharper production cuts that neighbours Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have been forced to make due to limited alternative export routes.

Of that capacity, around 5 million bpd could be available for exports, with the rest supplying local refineries, Saudi state energy company Aramco said on March 10.

Around 70 tankers are expected to load at Yanbu this month, including about 40 still on their way, according to LSEG shipping data.

Most are bound for Asia, with China accounting for the largest share at around 2.2 million bpd. The first tanker departed Yanbu for Asia on March 10.

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Average loadings at Yanbu rose to 2.6 million bpd so far in March, up from 1.4 million bpd in February and 1.3 million bpd in January, the data showed.

Speeding up pipeline flows

Aramco is using a friction-reducing chemical, known as drag-reducing agent (DRA), to speed up pipeline flows, two industry sources told Reuters.

The method, which was widely employed by pipeline operators in Europe when they had to adjust the flows in the wake of sanctions on Russian oil imports, can boost flow rates by 30% or more.

The U.S. and China are the main suppliers of DRA, but Saudi Arabia is well stocked so far, the sources said.

Saudi Arabia exported around 6 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz before the war effectively shut the narrow passage in late February.

Its production was down by around 2 million bpd, or about 20%, to about 8 million bpd after output was curtailed at two major offshore fields, sources told Reuters on March 13.

The Red Sea route also involves security risks, including from Yemen’s Houthi forces, whose attacks disrupted shipping during the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza.

No such attacks have occurred since the start of the Iran war, the West’s naval information centre JMIC said on Tuesday.

Traffic through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait has returned to historical levels, with around 40 vessel transits recorded in the past 24 hours, it added.