Indian rupee counts on RBI backstop before Fed decision; oil looms large over outlook

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to hover in a narrow range on Wednesday, supported by persistent central bank intervention near the 92.50-per-dollar level, while traders await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision amid surging oil prices.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggests the rupee will open little changed at 92.34–92.38 per dollar from its prior level of 92.37, with a quiet session expected.

The bias on the dollar/rupee pair is for a “step-by-step and orderly” uptick considering oil now looks to be holding the $100 handle, a currency trader at a bank said.

“However, the RBI’s presence near 92.50 means that the push higher will not come from speculators and real flows will be needed.”

The rupee has remained vulnerable to a decline past 92.50 over the past three sessions, with intervention by the Reserve Bank of India preventing the break lower.

The pressure on the rupee reflects a mix of equity outflows, increased corporate hedging on worries over the impact of persistently higher oil prices, and speculative positioning against the rupee.

Foreign investors have withdrawn more than $8 billion from Indian equities since the Iran war began, dragging the Nifty 50 index down over 6% this month.

Fed, oil

The Fed will announce its policy decision later in the day, with economists widely expecting the central bank to remain on hold. Expectations for rate cuts have been pared back, with markets now pricing in around 25 basis points of reductions this year, compared with over 50 bps before the war began.

The focus will be on the Fed’s projections. “We expect the updated projections to show higher headline inflation, softer growth, and an unchanged “dot plot.” If so, we believe the Fed is prepared to “look through” oil-induced inflation, Morgan Stanley said in a note.