LONDON: Global sugar prices fell on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump predicted the Iran war could end soon, sending oil prices down around 7percent.
Dealers said the market’s focus remained on the extent to which high energy prices could curb sugar production in Brazil where mills have the flexibility to adjust their plants to make more ethanol or sugar, depending on market prices for them.
At 1356 GMT, raw sugar price futures on the ICE exchange were down 2percent at 14.29 cents per lb, having earlier dropped nearly 3percent, while white sugar futures fell 1.4percent to USD414.90 a metric ton.
Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, which supplies around 80percent of the gasoline in Brazil, has yet to increase local prices but the longer the Iran war persists the higher the likelihood they will be ultimately hiked.
Prices for biofuel ethanol in Brazil are heavily influenced by the domestic gasoline market. In other soft commodities markets, cocoa futures rose, with prices expected to stage a modest recovery by the end of 2026 according to a Reuters poll.
London cocoa rose 1.1percent to 2,383 pounds per ton, while New York cocoa gained 1.3percent to USD3,335 a ton. Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council has sold more than 400,000 tons of cocoa export contracts to local grinders in the 10 days since exporters resumed purchases for the mid-crop, sources at the regulator and exporters told Reuters on Tuesday. Arabica coffee fell 1.1percent to USD2.9370 per lb while robusta coffee lost 1.5percent to USD3,710 per ton.
Cocoa prices likely to stage modest recovery
Cocoa prices are expected to head modestly above current levels by year-end but remain some way below prices seen at the end of last year due to this season’s large global surplus, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Monday.
London cocoa futures on ICE were predicted to end 2026 at 2,750 pounds a metric ton, up 16.6percent from Monday’s close but 37percent lower than at the end of 2025, according to the median forecast of poll participants.
New York cocoa was forecast to end the year at USD3,350 per ton, up 1.9percent from Monday’s close but 45percent lower than end-2025 levels. After nearly tripling in 2024 to record levels, cocoa prices have since lost about three-quarters of their value as chocolate makers have responded to high prices by shrinking bar sizes and substituting products like cocoa butter with alternative fats.
At the same time, favourable weather has led to bigger and healthier crops, aided by the fact that farmers increased pruning and crop care in response to the historically high prices of the past two years.
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