Liberia sees iron ore output tripling to 30 million tons on ArcelorMittal expansion

CAPE TOWN: Liberia expects iron ore output to triple to around 30 million metric tons this year, driven by ArcelorMittal Liberia’s (AML) planned ramp-up and fresh volumes from new and revived projects, the country’s mines minister has told Reuters.

The West African nation produced about 10 million tons in 2025, almost all of it from AML, its main mining operator. Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal is investing in expanding its Liberian operations, anchored by a new concentrator and major rail and port upgrades. It said last month it planned to ship 20 million tons of iron ore from Liberia in 2026, from historic levels of around 5 million tons per annum. The railway is being expanded toward 30 million tons per annum capacity for AML under a new, long-term agreement that also pays the government USD200 million in fees.

Iron ore prices jumped in 2025 as China’s record imports lifted demand and tightened the seaborne market. “This year, ArcelorMittal should be hitting 20 million tons,” Matenokay Tingban said on the sidelines of the African mining conference Mining Indaba last week.

“We expect Liberia to reach between 25 and 30 million tons once all producers come online,” he said, citing Cavalla Resources, Westcrest and Zodiac as new entrants slated to start production this year as Bao Chico resumes operations. Gold production is also expected to rise as Mansa Resources’ Dugbe mine ramps up.

The government has meanwhile ordered the Liberia Geological Survey to catalogue and study new critical-mineral targets after Chinese geochemical work detected signs of lithium and other strategic elements, the minister said.

African governments have been pushing mining code reviews to capture more value from surging commodity prices. Alongside the volume push, Tingban said Liberia is also fast-tracking a review of its mining law within three months, with proposed changes to the licensing regime and a framework for a national mining company to take stakes.

The core fiscal shift introduces free-carried state equity of 10percent–15percent per project, with a long-term target of 25percent, he said.

“We are moving from a royalty-only approach to equity participation to maximise returns, fund infrastructure and create jobs,” the minister said. Royalty rates will remain at 4.5percent for iron ore and 3percent for gold, while heavy mineral sands will be set at 8percent. He added that whether new equity terms apply to existing projects will be determined by the Ministry of Justice.

“With all this, we expect overall mining output to increase from 15percent (in 2024) to as high as 50percent depending on how fast new producers come online.