Indian rupee bias mildly on upside after limited impact from US payroll surprise

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to open Thursday with an upside bias, after Asian currencies were largely rangebound despite a rise in US Treasury yields following robust US jobs data.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.66-90.70 range versus the US dollar, having settled 0.14% weaker at 90.70 on Wednesday.

Asian currencies were mixed and largely range-bound on Thursday, reflecting a muted reaction to January’s upside surprise in US nonfarm payrolls.

The dollar index initially climbed alongside higher US Treasury yields, as the strong jobs data tempered expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, before retreating below the 97 threshold.

US equities were mostly flat on Wednesday, while 10-year Treasury yields rose about 3 basis points.

Economists cautioned that the headline strength may overstate the underlying health of the labour market.

Although data from the Labour Department showed a robust print, analysts noted that such releases are often subject to sizable revisions and should be interpreted with care.

“It is not “all good news” on the labour market,” ANZ Bank said in a note, arguing that one month of data does not alter the broader trend of cooling employment conditions.

The bank highlighted that 2025 job growth was revised down to 181,000 from 584,000, averaging roughly 15,000 per month, underscoring the softness in the labour market.

For the rupee, which has been establishing a 90-91 range following its initial rally on the back of the US-India trade deal, the latest US jobs data “changes nothing”, a currency trader at a bank said.

The rupee’s reaction to external cues has anyway been limited in recent sessions, and with the payrolls report failing to significantly move other asset classes, the focus shifts back to local dollar flows and positioning, the trader added.