Indian rupee may dip after US-India deal rally; large corporates seen mopping up dollars

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to weaken at the open on Wednesday after posting its biggest single-day rise in seven years following the US trade deal, with traders flagging potential dollar buying by large corporates.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.35-90.40 range versus the US dollar, having climbed 1.36% on Tuesday to 90.2650.

The rupee’s trade deal–driven rally stalled near the 90-mark threshold, a level bankers said was expected to trigger heavy dollar buying by importers.

The currency hit an intraday high of 90.0450 before easing, as a major Indian conglomerate and other large corporates were seen buying dollars, according to bankers.

“When you see a move from 92 to 90 in such a short timeframe, it inevitably prompts an increase in hedging (from importers,” a currency trader said.

“That dynamic is likely to persist, and I will be surprised if there’s a sustained move below 90 (on dollar/rupee).”

When you “cut through all the noise”, the key question is whether capital flows revive, which will be the main driver for the rupee, he added.

On the capital flows front, early signals were positive. Foreign investors, who had largely been selling in January, turned buyers on Tuesday, purchasing around $600 million of Indian shares, according to preliminary data.

“If capital flows improve meaningfully, in the coming months, due to the trade deals and improvement in offshore investor sentiments, then the Reserve Bank of India should allow the rupee to appreciate further,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.

In Asian trade, the rupee’s peers were mixed, offering little in the way of clear cues for the local currency. Oil prices, meanwhile, climbed after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone and armed boats approached a U.S.-flagged vessel in a key waterway.

Traders in the currency markets were still digesting U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve.