Geopolitics loom large over big oil earnings

HOUSTON: Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives may face more questions about their investment opportunities in Venezuela than their actual quarterly earnings when they hold calls with analysts on Friday.

The US capture and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month opened a possible - albeit arduous - path for Big Oil to access the country’s massive crude reserves, after President Donald Trump announced his vision for $100 billion of fresh American investment to boost and control Venezuelan oil output.

It was a dramatic geopolitical twist that followed renewed US-China trade tensions and Russia-Ukraine peace talks during the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to fluctuating oil prices. Investors have also focused on widespread anti-government protests in Iran and a possible US response in recent days.

Exxon and Chevron report fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Friday, while European oil majors Shell, TotalEnergies and BP will report next month.