Indian rupee rebounds on index rebalancing flows, traders trim long US dollar bets

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee gained against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, snapping a three-day slide as index-rebalancing inflows and trimmed dollar longs lifted sentiment in thin year-end trade.

The Indian rupee ended 0.2% higher at 89.79 per dollar after opening at 89.9325. It stayed rangebound through the morning and had settled at 89.9750 on Monday.

“The Indian rupee experienced a significant appreciation post the RBI reference rate, as year-end obligations were met alongside rebalancing flows taking effect,” said Dilip Parmar, forex research analyst at HDFC Securities.

“Still, the currency’s gains were underpinned by thin liquidity and a steady stream of dollar supply from banks.”

Parmar expects the currency to trade in a range of 89.40 to 90.26 in the near term.

Several traders said corporate activity stayed muted and focused on routine near-term flows, buying or selling dollars to meet payables or convert receivables, with few firms taking fresh directional bets. Hedging was light, indicating companies were reluctant to add longer-dated cover at current levels.

The rupee held a narrow range, with participants citing the central bank’s expected presence near the 90 level as a key backstop. That perception has anchored spot moves and reinforced a sideways bias in thin year-end trade.

Dollar/rupee forward premiums eased again, with the one-year implied interest rate down about 10 basis points to 2.71%.

The pullback followed the central bank’s plan for a $10 billion buy/sell swap and a drop in rollover costs from Dec. 31 to Jan. 1, traders said.