ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Water Resources has stated that data indicates the discharge of the Chenab River (mainstream) has stabilized after a significant period of volatility.
In an official statement, the Ministry said that monitoring of the Chenab River flow at Marala — excluding the Jamu and Manawar Tawi — is being carried out by the Punjab Irrigation Department. The monitored data is shared with the Office of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters.
According to this data, the discharge of the Chenab River has now successfully stabilized following a prolonged period of fluctuation.
The Ministry further noted that hydrological records from the first half of December 2025 confirm an extraordinary reduction in river flows between December 10 and December 16.
During this period, the river flow frequently dropped, with the lowest recorded discharge at 870 cusecs. This figure is significantly below the historical 10-year minimum range of approximately 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs for the corresponding dates.
To assess the reasons behind the extraordinary reduction in flows at Chenab Main, Marala, satellite imagery analysis revealed a significant reduction in the surface area of the Baglihar reservoir on December 8, 2025, followed by an increase observed in imagery dated December 13, 2025. The reduction and subsequent increase in the reservoir’s surface area suggest that India may have emptied the Baglihar reservoir before refilling it.
The Ministry clarified that under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is not permitted to empty the dead storage of reservoirs associated with run-of-the-river hydroelectric plants on the Western Rivers. Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters has formally taken up the matter with the Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters, seeking detailed data and explanations regarding the extraordinary reduction in Chenab River flows in accordance with the treaty framework.
“A positive shift in river hydrology began on December 17, 2025, when the river flow started to rise steadily. By 07:00 hours on December 17, the discharge reached 6,399 cusecs, entering the historical ten-year range for the first time since the mid-month decline,” the Ministry said.
According to data from the Punjab Irrigation Department, as of December 19, 2025, the river flows remain within the ten-year historical range of maximum and minimum values. Recent readings on December 19 recorded flows of 4,505 cusecs and 6,494 cusecs, aligning with or exceeding historical norms for this period.
The Ministry emphasized that continuous monitoring will remain in place to ensure water management strategies can respond to any future fluctuations. It also clarified that any information originating from sources other than the Office of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters holds no official standing.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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