NEW YORK: The US dollar edged lower on Friday but held near recent ranges against major currencies as traders awaited next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, was down 0.2 percent at 98.906, not far from Thursday’s five-week low of 98.765. The euro was up 0.1 percent at USD1.1651, not far from Thursday’s three-week high of USD1.1681.
Traders are pricing a nearly 90 percent chance of a Fed rate cut next week, and potentially two more reductions next year, LSEG data showed.
“This week, some soft labor market data releases from alternative sources helped crystallize what still appears to be an overdone 90 percent probability of a cut next week,” Antonio Ruggiero, FX & macro strategist at Convera, said.
“The dollar also continues to look overvalued relative to major peers, with the softer tone therefore fully justified,” Ruggiero said.
Data on Friday that showed US consumer sentiment improved in early December did little to boost the dollar.
Separately, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September after gaining 0.3 percent in August, the BEA said. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index gained 0.2 percent after climbing 0.2 percent in August, the report delayed by the recent government shutdown showed. Investors are also weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts.
The dollar “remains slightly offered on the view that the Fed will cut rates next week and that the arrival of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair will somehow make the Fed more dovish,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
The US labor market has also been in focus, as an indication for the Fed to determine whether the economy needs further support. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a more than three-year low last week, but may have been skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday.
The yen, which has been supported in recent sessions by expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates this month, took a breather on Friday, trading little changed on the day at 155.15 to the dollar.
BOJ officials are ready to raise rates on December 19 in the absence of any major economic shocks, Bloomberg reported on Friday, a day after Reuters reported three sources as saying a hike this month was likely.
“As the funding currency of choice in the carry trade, some unwinding in light of higher JPY rates is poised to boost the yen,” Convera’s Ruggiero said.
Sterling rose 0.2 percent to USD1.335, approaching the previous session’s six-week peak of USD1.3385.
Next week sees a parade of central bank policy decisions, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s coming on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada’s on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank’s on Thursday in addition to the Fed’s statement on Wednesday.
That continues the following week with the BOJ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Sweden’s Riksbank.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin fell for the second straight day, slipping 1 percent to USD90,975.
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