Pakistan’s inflation to climb in November amid border closure, food price spike: report

Pakistan’s inflation is set to edge higher in November 2025, with expectations of 6.5–7.0% YoY, reflecting pressures from food supply disruptions and energy price adjustments, said Topline Securities, a brokerage house, in a report on Thursday.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation for November 2025 is projected at 0.8%.

“The MoM increase was driven by a rise of 1.52% food prices due to the aftereffects of floods and the closure of the Afghan border in the country, affecting food supplies,” read the report.

Topline shared that the key contributors to food inflation came from onions (59%), chicken (16%), meat (15%) and fresh vegetables (12%). There was also a 0.79% rise in the housing, water, electricity and gas category, the report noted.

Inflation in Pakistan has been a significant and persistent economic challenge, particularly in recent years. In May 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate hit a record high of 38%.

Following the peak, inflation showed a substantial and steady decline, dropping into single digits by September 2024 (6.9%) and reaching its lowest point at 0.3% in April 2025. Since the low point, the inflation rate has begun to climb again, indicating a recent acceleration in the cost of living.

In October 2025, Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.2% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. This was the highest in 11 months.

“With inflation expectations of 6.5-7.0% for November 2025, real rates will surge to 400-450bps, higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps,” said Topline.

The brokerage house noted that a significant shift in global commodity prices remains a major variable that could alter the inflation trajectory moving forward.

Similarly, JS Global, another brokerage house, expects headline inflation to clock in at 6.3% YoY in November 2025, following an uptick in food inflation, which is projected to rise 7.2% YoY.

“A recent moderation in tomato prices has provided some relief; otherwise, the uptick in food inflation would have been even higher,” said JS Global.

On Wednesday, Jameel Ahmad, Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), said that Inflation has not only aligned with the central bank’s forecasts but is also “expected to remain within the 5–7% target band over the medium term”.

JS Global expects SBP to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled to be held in December.