South African rand steady as markets brush off credit upgrade, pivot to interest rate decision

JOHANNESBURG: The South African rand held its ground in early trading on Monday, shrugging off S&P Global’s first credit upgrade of the country since 2005 - a move to BB from BB- with a positive outlook - as investors shifted focus to this week’s looming interest rate decision.

At 0721 GMT, the rand traded at 17.07 against the US dollar, little changed from its Friday close.

“The muted reaction reflects that the move was largely priced in, though the upgrade, combined with Treasury’s backing of a 3% inflation target, supports SA’s longer-term risk profile,” said Wichard Cilliers, head of market risk at TreasuryONE, in a note.

Last week, the rand briefly broke below a key 17-per-dollar level for the first time since February 2023 to touch 16.955 after the government’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement showed signs of fiscal discipline.

This week’s economic calendar will feature October consumer inflation figures and September retail sales data on Wednesday, followed by the central bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

The general consensus is that the central bank will cut interest rates by a quarter point.

However, economists polled by Reuters expect that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep its main lending rate unchanged at 7.0%.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index was last up 0.5% in early trade.

South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond was firmer in early deals, with the yield falling 5 basis points to 8.605%.