KARACHI: Authorities on Friday issued fresh warnings of exceptionally high flood levels in multiple rivers, as the heavy monsoon rains are likely to swell the country’s waterways.
The alerts have raised fears of large-scale inundation in Punjab and Sindh, with experts warning that a chain of rivers may soon spill over into surrounding districts if the current inflows persist.
The River Chenab is expected to attain exceptionally high flood levels at Trimmu within the next 24 hours, while the River Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala and downstream will continue to face exceptionally high flooding through September 2. The River Ravi at Shahdara, currently at an exceptionally high flood level, is forecast to gradually ease to a high flood level in the next 24 hours.
On September 2, the River Chenab at Panjnad is expected to reach very high flood levels. The River Indus, already running in low-level flood at Sukkur, Guddu, and Kotri barrages, is forecast to attain very high flood levels at Guddu and Sukkur between September 4 and 5.
The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Sindh circulated the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s forecasts, warning that the new spell of torrential rains could aggravate the situation until at least September 2. Light rain and drizzle are expected in Tharparkar, with hot and humid weather prevailing across most districts of the province.
At 6:00 a.m. on Friday, actual river flows recorded at major barrages showed 366,300 cusecs at Guddu against a design capacity of 1.2 million cusecs; 285,000 cusecs at Sukkur against a 900,000 design capacity, and 247,100 cusecs at Kotri against a design capacity of 875,000 cusecs.
The PDMA warned that inflows at these stations are expected to rise further in the next 24 hours, with forecast flows at Guddu between 370,000 and 440,000 cusecs, at Sukkur between 290,000 and 330,000 cusecs, and at Kotri between 250,000 and 270,000 cusecs.
Reservoirs across the system are already at or near capacity. At Tarbela, the water level has touched 1,550 feet, the maximum conservation level, leaving live storage at full capacity. At Mangla, the level is 1,223 feet against a maximum of 1,242, reflecting storage at 80 percent.
The weekly flood outlook issued by the Flood Forecasting Division in Lahore highlighted that moderate rainfall activity is likely to continue across the upper catchments of all major rivers, with intensity increasing to heavy from August 30 to September 2. Rainfall over upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej, coupled with fresh inflows, is expected to further heighten flood risk.
The forecast also warned of widespread rain, wind, and thunderstorms in Punjab and Islamabad; particularly Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, and adjoining districts through September 2, with risks of urban flooding in low-lying areas. In Kashmir, including Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Kotli, and Mirpur, heavy rainfall is expected to generate flash floods in local streams and nullahs. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, districts such as Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, and Peshawar are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rains, with a high chance of flash flooding and landslides in hilly areas.
Sindh will also see rainfall activity, with Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Dadu, Umerkot, and Mithi in Tharparkar district forecast to receive rain and thundershowers on August 30 and 31, accompanied by humid and hot conditions in most other parts of the province.
Urban flooding, flash floods in local streams, and landslides in mountainous terrain were also flagged as possible impacts of the intense weather system.
The PDMA has directed all deputy commissioners, district disaster management authorities, and line departments to remain on high alert around the clock and to take all necessary measures to avoid loss of life and property. A wide range of provincial government departments, law enforcement agencies, humanitarian organizations, and utility providers have also been instructed to coordinate emergency response.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department advised the public, travellers, and tourists to exercise caution, avoid unnecessary exposure to vulnerable areas, and stay updated on daily advisories issued through the PMD website, the Pak Weather App, and official social media alerts.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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