Global slowdown could dampen demand for Indian exports, finance ministry report says

NEW DELHI: A global slowdown could further dampen demand for Indian exports and continued uncertainty on U.S. tariffs may weigh on the country’s trade performance in coming quarters, India’s finance ministry said in its monthly economic report.

India’s goods exports fell to $35.14 billion in June, down 9% from May, and remained nearly flat from a year earlier. The figure was the lowest since November’s $32.11 billion, according to LSEG data.

“Despite global headwinds marked by trade tensions, geopolitical volatility, and external uncertainties, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals have remained resilient,” said the report released on Monday.

Even as the outlook for Indian economy is positive, Asia’s third largest economy faces downside risks such as a global slowdown, particularly the U.S. economy shrinking 0.5% in January-March, impacting India’s exports, it said.

The report also said that the country’s inflation rate in 2025-26 could undershoot the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) expectation of 3.7%. Retail inflation in June fell to over a six-year low of 2.1%.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malholtra last week said the central bank has “ won the battle against inflation“, but the war is ongoing as price stability remains the central goal.