EDITORIAL: Since last Wednesday when following the Pahalgam attack India downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and announced a series of peak hostility steps, what has angered Pakistan the most is suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
At an emergency session of the National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Islamabad has delivered a strong tit-for-tat response also including in it an overfly ban on Indian operated airlines, potential dissolution of the bilateral Simla Agreement (thereby reversion of the Line of Control in Kashmir to Ceasefire Line) and a stark warning that any disruption in the River Indus’ water flows would be deemed an “act of war.”
The IWT, reminded the NSC to the Delhi government, is a binding international agreement brokered by the World Bank and contains no provision for unilateral suspension, warning that any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan and the usurpation of its rights as a lower riparian, will be responded with full force across “the complete spectrum” of national power.
Understandably, having been blamed for the Pahalgam incident in a knee-jerk reaction without any investigation or evidence, Pakistan is apprehensive about the Modi government’s intentions. It is worth noting that soon after the incident it had claimed that two of the four gunmen who killed 26 people in Pahalgam were Pakistanis, yet on Thursday Prime Minister Modi vowed to hunt down the attackers.
If they were still at large, how did the police determine their identity? This question begs an answer. Instead of resorting to blame game, the Modi government needs to take a pause and rethink its policies towards the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region.
As regards the threat to our water security, the 1960 IWT, brokered by the World Bank, has survived two major wars and some limited conflicts between the two countries. It is often cited as a good example of trans-boundary water management.
But given his track record, the far-right Hindutva zealot Prime Minister Narendra Modi can go to any lengths to cause harm to Pakistan. Fortunately, however, as pointed out by analysts, even if it wanted, India cannot immediately stop the flow of Pakistan’s share of water since it lacks the means to divert and store it. Doing so will take considerable time, by which Modi or his party may not be in power.
For now, Modi is gearing to reinforce his anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan credentials. None of his options are without risk, though. Defence minister Khawaja Asif has said intelligence assessments indicate India may be preparing to upscale its low intensity terrorism against Pakistan, and that “we are fully prepared for this wave of terrorism. … If our citizens are not safe in our cities, those in India will not be safe either” — a pretty scary scenario.
The other option on the table is air strikes, like back in 2019, which will invite strong retaliation from Pakistan. It can only be hoped that better sense will prevail and the Modi government will refrain from military adventurism, which may lead to an all-out war between the two nuclear-armed nations. Things in such situations rarely go as planned.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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