SINGAPORE: The dollar made a steady start on Monday as investors prepared for a week packed with economic data that may give a first glimpse of whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war is hitting home.
At 143.57 yen and $1.1360 per euro the greenback has, for now, found a footing, while staying on course for its largest monthly fall in nearly 2-1/2 years as Trump has rattled confidence in the dependability of U.S. assets.
It is down more than 4% on both the euro and the yen through April, though bounced at the end of last week on an apparent conciliatory shift in the tone of U.S.-China relations.
Last week both sides seemed to pull back from the precipice, with the Trump administration signalling openness to reducing tariffs and China exempting some imports from its 125% levies.
Yet where Trump insists there has been progress, and that he has spoken with President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied trade talks are occurring and on Sunday Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not say that tariff talks were under way.
“The next big chapter here will be whether all this volatility has hit real-world decisions - especially in the U.S. jobs market,” said ING’s global head of markets, Chris Turner.
That has investors waiting on April U.S. jobs figures, due on Friday, where a sharp slowdown in hiring is expected.
The U.S. also releases first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation gauge, core PCE, this week, while GDP and preliminary inflation figures are also due in Europe.
An Australian inflation reading on Wednesday is seen as unlikely to derail a rate cut that markets have priced as a certainty for next month.
The Australian dollar is trading pretty close to recent highs and was just shy of $0.64 on Monday morning. The New Zealand dollar likewise hovered just shy of $0.60.
“AUD/USD could trade above resistance at 0.6464, but it has been a strong resistance level this month,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso in a note to clients.
Canada goes to the polls on Monday, with the ruling Liberal Party holding a narrow lead in polls and a larger one in online prediction markets. Options markets suggest traders are not bracing for much volatility in currency trade and the Canadian dollar was steady at C$1.3874 per dollar.
The Bank of Japan sets monetary policy on Thursday.
No policy change is expected though markets will be focused on the outlook and how policymakers are planning to navigate an uncertain economic environment- especially as U.S.-Japan trade talks are expected to touch on the currency.
Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura on Monday denied a report in the Yomiuri newspaper that Bessent had said during a bilateral meeting with Japan that a weak dollar and a strong yen are desirable.
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