Deutsche Bank, which had held the highest year-end target for the S&P 500 index so far, slashed it by 12%, on mounting economic uncertainties fueled by the ongoing U.S. trade war.
Similar to other global brokerages, Deutsche Bank cut its target to 6,150 from 7,000 but expects a recovery rally in stocks if trade tensions ease.
Even after the cut, Deutsche Bank remains one among the few brokerages that hold a target above 6,000. Its U.S. counterparts such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect the index to be under 6,000 by the end of the year.
“While there have been several attempts at de-escalation there has not been a credible relent on trade policy, while macro concerns have been mounting,” Deutsche Bank strategists wrote in a note dated Wednesday.
President Donald Trump’s ever-changing tariff policy, highlighted by a recent 90-day suspension on most imports and specific exemptions for certain Chinese goods, has jolted financial markets, intensifying worries of a trade war and a global recession.
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“While the eventual tariff rates remain uncertain, the potential impact of the current announced rates suggests large impacts, with U.S. companies likely to bear a disproportionate share of the tax burden,” Deutsche Bank added.
The brokerage reduced the estimate for the index’s earnings per share to $240 from $282.
The benchmark index has fallen over 8% this year, having entered correction territory in March, with Deutsche Bank expecting the index to trade in the range of 4,600-5,600 in the near term.
The index last closed at 5,375.86 points on Wednesday.
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