Urgency of population control

EDITORIAL: Observations by banking sector experts at the Pakistan Banking Summit 2025 should have given policymakers plenty of food for though. Atif Bajwa, the Summit’s chairman and CEO of Bank Alfalah, endorsed the finance minister Aurangzeb’s assertion of population growth and climate change as the two existential challenges facing Pakistan.

And it must be pointed out that while the latter rightly draws concern, the unchecked population boom remains an elephant in the room — one that authorities have long ignored at great peril to the nation’s economic and social stability.

Pakistan’s population explosion is not a new phenomenon, but its consequences have now reached a breaking point. With over 240 million people and one of the highest birth rates in the world, the country is struggling to provide even the most basic necessities — education, healthcare, housing, and jobs.

The link between economic stagnation and population growth is well-documented: an expanding population demands more resources, but without a proportional increase in economic output, the result is higher poverty, unemployment, and a deteriorating standard of living.

Bajwa rightly pointed out the need for a mindset shift. The reluctance to discuss population control policies, often driven by political and ideological sensitivities, is proving disastrous. There is no economic model in which a country with weak infrastructure, struggling governance, and limited fiscal space can sustain such rapid population growth without suffering grave consequences.

Pakistan’s Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is already stretched thin, and as more people enter the system, the burden on public resources intensifies. Schools are overcrowded, hospitals lack capacity, and social services are unable to keep pace.

One of the most critical impacts of population growth is on employment. The job market simply cannot absorb the number of young people entering the workforce each year. Pakistan’s economy would need to grow at an unprecedented rate just to keep up with the number of new job seekers.

Instead, we see increasing unemployment, rising informality in labour markets, and worsening socioeconomic inequality. The result? More frustration among the youth, greater political instability, and an overreliance on remittances as millions seek opportunities abroad.

Then there is the environmental toll. A larger population means greater stress on water, land, and energy resources. Pakistan is already among the most water-stressed countries in the world, and unregulated urban expansion is further depleting natural resources. Climate change will only worsen these challenges. More people mean more emissions, more deforestation, and more pollution — aggravating an already fragile ecological situation.

Bajwa’s appreciation of the State Bank of Pakistan’s role in stabilising the economy is also important. Without prudent management, the crisis could, rather would, have deepened. But economic stability, however necessary, is not sufficient.

Long-term prosperity requires structural reforms—chief among them, addressing the population crisis. Banking reforms, digital finance expansion, and financial inclusion strategies are all well and good, but their benefits will be drowned out if Pakistan continues to add millions more to its population without a plan to sustain them.

It is time for serious action. Population control is not just a development issue — it is an economic, social, and security imperative. The government must engage in a sustained campaign to promote family planning, invest in women’s education, and remove barriers to contraceptive access. Without addressing this fundamental issue, no amount of economic policy reforms will be enough to ensure a prosperous future for Pakistan.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025