SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were trying to find their footing on Tuesday after sudden swings in US tariff policy sent global markets on a wild ride, leaving the outlook clouded by uncertainty.
The Aussie was hanging on at $0.6213, having dived to a five-year low of $0.6088 at one stage on Monday before rallying all the way back.
The volatility made for a confused technical picture, with support around $0.6130/40 and resistance at $0.6240.
The kiwi dollar had clambered back to $0.5618, after sliding to a two-year trough of $0.5517 at one stage overnight.
It did, however, manage to avoid a break of its 2022 low at $0.5510 and now faces resistance at $0.5640.
The rebound came after US President Donald Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month, sparking hopes they may be avoided altogether.
However, additional 10% tariffs on China are still due to go ahead at 0501 GMT on Tuesday, and markets are nervous about how Beijing might retaliate.
China is Australia’s single biggest export market and tariffs could weigh on demand for Australian resources.
“The prospect of a trade war obviously makes for an uncertain economic environment, wreaks havoc with tightly integrated supply chains, crimps operating margins and at a macro level amounts to a stagflationary shock,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac.
Australia, NZ dollars struggle to end losing stretch amid tariff risks
“We will surely see further Trump tariff volatility in coming days and weeks.”
Dealers were taking cues from movements in the yuan as the Aussie is often used as a liquid proxy for the Chinese currency, mirroring its moves upward or downward.
The US dollar initially spiked to a record high of 7.3765 yuan on Monday, before easing back to 7.3125 on speculation Beijing would not use devaluation as a way to offset tariffs.
Chinese markets return from holiday on Wednesday and were the yuan allowed to fall sharply, the Aussie was likely to follow.
“The escalation of trade tensions creates clear downside risk for the global economy,” said Paul Bloxham, head of Australia economics at HSBC.
“We see it as enough to tip the RBA’s view in favour of starting to support the economy a little earlier,” he added.
He now sees the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates this month, rather than starting in the second quarter.
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