WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund on Friday raised its forecast for global growth in 2025 by one-tenth of a percentage point, with stronger-than-expected growth in the US offsetting downward revisions in Germany, France and other major economies.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global growth of 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, and said global headline inflation was set to drop to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, allowing a further normalization of monetary policy and ending the global disruptions of recent years.
But it said global growth remained below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019, and warned countries against unilateral measures such as tariffs, non-tariff barriers or subsidies that could hurt trading partners and spur retaliation.
Such policies “rarely improve domestic prospects durably” and may leave “every country worse off,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog released Friday.
The new IMF forecast comes just days before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed a 10% tariff on global imports, a 25% punitive duty on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing borders into the US, and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
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