BEIJING: China’s exports gathered pace in December, while imports recovered, closing out the year on a positive note as the world’s second-largest economy braces for mounting trade risks with the incoming US administration.
US President-elect Donald Trump, set to return to the White House next week, has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking fears of a renewed trade war between the two superpowers.
Adding to the challenges, unresolved disputes with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles threaten to hinder China’s ambitions to expand its auto exports.
“Trade frontloading became more visible in December as a result of both Chinese New Year effects and Donald Trump’s inauguration,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. The festival runs from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4 this year.
“Import growth could be underpinned by stockpiling of commodities like copper and iron ore, as part of (China’s) ‘buy low’ strategy,” he added.
Outbound shipments in December rose 10.7% year-on-year, customs data showed on Monday, beating 7.3% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, and improving from November’s 6.7% increase.
Growth in China’s factory activity slows, Caixin PMI shows
Imports surprised to the upside with 1.0% growth, the strongest performance since July 2024. Economists had expected a 1.5% decline.
China’s trade surplus grew to $104.8 billion last month, up from $97.4 billion in November. A Chinese customs spokesperson told reporters there was still “huge” room for the $18 trillion economy’s imports to grow this year.
Export momentum has been a critical driver for China’s economy, which remains weighed down by a prolonged property market slump and fragile consumer confidence.
There have been signs, however, of stabilisation following China’s stimulus push in recent months.
Factory activity remained in modest expansion for the third consecutive month, while services and construction recovered in December, an official survey showed.
South Korea, a key indicator of China’s imports, reported a 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December, suggesting resilience in demand for technology products.
China’s iron ore imports in 2024 rose for a second straight year to hit a new peak, as lower prices spurred buying and demand remained resilient despite the country’s protracted property crisis continuing to weigh on steel demand.
The world’s largest agricultural importer also bought a record amount of soybeans last year, after buyers concerned about US-China trade tensions rushed to secure US soybeans ahead of incoming US president Donald Trump’s inauguration.
But crude oil imports fell last year, the data showed, marking its first annual decline in the last two decades outside the COVID-19 pandemic-induced falls, as tepid economic growth and peaking fuel consumption dampened purchases.
China’s top leaders have pledged to loosen monetary policy and adopt a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, aiming to offset external pressures and revitalise domestic demand.
The government is targeting economic growth of around 5% for the year, a goal that had proved challenging to achieve at times in 2024.
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