China’s soybean imports may fall 9.5% this marketing year, COFCO executive says

DALIAN: China’s soybean imports are likely to drop by 9.5% in the marketing year ending in September 2025, an executive of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) said on Wednesday.

Overseas shipments of soybeans into China, the world’s biggest consumer of the oilseed, will drop to 98.8 million metric tons in the year to September 2025 from 109.4 million tons shipped in the prior year, the executive, who asked to remain unidentified, said in a speech at an oilseeds conference.

State-owned COFCO is one of China’s largest agribusiness and food processing enterprises. Chinese buyers have ramped up soybean imports in recent months to stockpile the oilseed ahead of the US elections.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House early next year is likely to reignite trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The COFCO executive did not provide reasons for the anticipated drop in soybean imports this marketing year but said that they would need to see if buyers are willing to take on US cargoes.

“If we look at the long-term trend, looking at December and January shipping schedules, profit margins from US soybeans are relatively good,” the official said.

“But we have to monitor the effectiveness of the profit margins – whether people will dare to buy US soybeans.”

During Trump’s first presidential term, China responded to US tariffs by imposing duties on American soybeans.

During the trade dispute, profit margins for US soybeans were very high but it was not enough to attract demand, the official said.

China also agreed to buy a set value of US agricultural goods as part of the Phase 1 trade agreement worked out in January 2020.

In October, China imported 8.09 million metric tons of soybeans, the most for the month in four years and up 56% from 5.18 million tons a year ago.

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Higher purchases are likely to take China’s imports in the 2024 calendar year to an all-time high.

“Low prices stimulated demand for soymeal,” the executive said. Soymeal demand is being supported by better performance at hog companies, many of which turned a profit this year after several years of losses.

“It is expected that hog prices are unlikely to fall below the cost after Spring Festival in 2025. Breeding profits and hog inventories will jointly support soymeal demand,” the executive said.

Since the trade dispute under Trump, Beijing has taken steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods in a wider effort to bolster its food security.

So far this year, the share of China’s soybean imports from the US has dropped to 18%, from 40% in 2016, while Brazil’s share has grown to 76% from 46%, according to Chinese customs data.