Turkish inflation higher than expected at 48.58% in October

ISTANBUL: Turkish inflation remained loftier than expected in October, dipping only to 48.58% annually and to 2.88% monthly according to data on Monday, underscoring the central bank’s difficult battle against years of soaring prices.

The annual rate was driven by education and housing prices, while the monthly rate was driven by heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic drinks prices, up 4.33%, and clothing and shoes, up 14.32%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said.

In September - when rises were also higher than expected - monthly consumer price inflation (CPI) inflation was 2.97%, with the annual rate at 49.38%.

The central bank is closely watching monthly inflation as it continues to assess when it will begin easing monetary policy. Ahead of the CPI report, it was expected to make a first interest rate cut in December or January, having kept the policy rate at 50% since March.

S&P upgrades Turkiye’s credit rating to BB-

In a Reuters poll, the annual inflation rate was expected to fall to 48.2%, while the monthly figure was seen at 2.61%, mainly due to food prices.

The lira traded slightly weaker at 34.35 against the dollar after the data, near an all-time low.

The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 43.6% by year-end, higher than the central bank’s forecast, before falling to 25.1% at end-2025.

The central bank hiked rates by 4,150 basis points between June last year and March this year, as part of an abrupt shift to orthodox policy after years of low rates to stoke growth.

The domestic producer price index was up 1.29% month-on-month in October for an annual rise of 32.24%, the data showed.