CANBERRA: Chicago wheat, corn and soybean futures eased on Friday as traders decided that a fortnight-long rally which lifted prices from near four-year lows has left the contracts over-valued amid plentiful supply.
All three crops were nevertheless on track for weekly gains.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.6% at $5.71-1/4 a bushel by 0326 GMT but up 3.6% for the week, its second straight weekly increase.
CBOT corn slipped 0.2% to $4.09-3/4 a bushel but was up 2.2% from last Friday’s close, also its second weekly gain in a row, while soybeans fell 0.3% to $10.20-3/4 a bushel but were up 2.1% over the week for a third consecutive weekly rise.
The rallies were driven by speculators unwinding some of their hefty short positions.
Nudging the markets towards higher prices were a weak dollar that stimulated US export demand and poor wheat production in Western Europe.
That tide turned on Thursday, however, with commodity funds deciding that the contracts had become over-valued and turning net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat and soybeans, according to traders.
Cheap wheat continues to flow from the Black Sea region, pressuring prices, and the US will shortly begin harvesting what are - despite a dry end to the growing season - predicted to be huge corn and soy crops, creating a flood of new supply.
Many traders are waiting for the US Department of Agriculture to release its September crop estimates next week before making big moves.
Brokers StoneX this week lowered their US corn production estimate to 15.127 billion bushels from 15.207 billion and raised its estimate for US soybean output to 4.575 billion bushels from 4.483 billion.
Wheat, corn and soy take breather after short-covering rally
On wheat, which has risen furthest of the three crops, there has not been enough new information to adjust supply expectations and sustain a rally, said Andrew Whitelaw at agricultural consultants Episode 3 in Canberra.
“We wouldn’t be surprised if this move upwards was somewhat of a ‘dead cat bounce’ and we start to see some slippage in the coming days,” he said.
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