SYDNEY: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Wednesday after inflation data surprised on the downside and reinforced expectations the next move in interest rates would be a cut, albeit not for a few months yet.
The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for February rose 0.2% from January, keeping the annual pace at a two-year low of 3.4% when analysts had expected a rise to 3.5% or more.
A sharp drop in holiday costs helped offset gains in fuel, education and clothing. Prices for tradable goods were all but flat in the month. Non-tradable items, which are mainly services, rose 0.3%.
The three-month annualised pace of CPI inflation slowed to 2.4%, putting it within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band of 2% to 3%, but a key measure of core inflation was proving stickier.
“It’s a mixed bag, but the outturn puts headline inflation firmly on track to undershoot the RBA’s forecast of 3.7% in Q1,” said Abhijit Surya, an economist at Capital Economics.
“The upshot is that although there’s nothing in today’s CPI release to definitively rule out an August rate cut, the Bank may well decide it needs to see more data before it is convinced that it has done its job.”
Markets imply around a 68% chance the RBA will cut its 4.35% cash rate by a quarter point in August, while a move is fully priced in for September.
Australia dollar draws support from yuan, NZ$ in trouble
Futures imply a relatively modest 40 basis points of easing for all of 2024, compared to 78 basis points in the United States.
The Aussie dipped a touch on the data to $0.6527, but remains above chart support at $0.6504.
Immediate resistance lies around $0.6560. The New Zealand dollar was subdued at $0.5999, having touched a four-month low of $0.5986 early in the week.
A run of soft economic data has led markets to fully price in an August rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), even though the central bank is not forecasting an easing until well into 2025.
New Zealand’s government on Wednesday said it was unlikely to return to a budget surplus in the year to June 2027 and is not even certain of a surplus the following year as Treasury sees slower growth and falling tax revenue.
Treasury’s latest projections show the economy was expected to grow just 0.1% in the year to June, down from a forecast of 1.5% in December.
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