MUMBAI: The Indian rupee managed to recover on Monday and far forward premium rose, tracking a fall in near-maturity U.S. yields after data showed U.S. payrolls rose less than expected.
The rupee was at 82.6150 to the U.S. dollar by 11:14 a.m. IST, up from 82.74 in the previous session.
The USD/INR 1-year forward premium rose to 1.3050 rupee and the implied yield was up 2 basis points at 1.58%.
Indian rupee logs worst week in seven, awaits US jobs data amid hawkish Fed
The rupee came under significant pressure last week as premiums dropped to their lowest in over a decade on worries that U.S. rates could rise more and remain high for longer.
Near-maturity U.S. yields dropped on Friday after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than expected. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since December 2020 and below the 225,000 expected.
While the magnitude of the miss was not much, analysts pointed out that this data followed the jump in the private payrolls number that had probably slightly reshaped expectations around the NFP data.
The NFP miss did not impact expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle.
“Despite the slower job growth, robust wage growth and the slight decline in the unemployment rate are likely to keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates in their upcoming July meeting,” OCBC Treasury Research said in a note.
The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% from 3.7% in May while hourly earnings increased 0.4% on-month.
Focus now turns to the U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday that may affect expectations on what the Fed is likely to do following the now near-certain July rate hike.
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