SINGAPORE: Palm oil still targets 4,109 ringgit per tonne, as it failed to break a strong resistance at 4,289 ringgit. The resistance is identified as the 161.8% projection level of an upward wave c from 3,817 ringgit.
This wave may have ended around this level.
The current drop confirmed a false break above a lower resistance at 4,209 ringgit as well.
The drop is tentatively classified as a pullback towards a falling trendline.
The pullback looks far from complete, especially under the context of the deep drop of overnight CBOT grains. They are highly correlated.
A break above 4,209 ringgit may not lead to an impressive gain.
Most likely, the gain will be limited to 4,289 ringgit.
On the daily chart, an inverted head-and-shoulders has taken shape.
Palm oil may fall to 4,109 ringgit
The pattern suggests a medium-term target of 6,000 ringgit.
Based on the current slow pace, the contract may retrace more towards 4,070 ringgit before resuming its rise.
Since this barrier is near the peak of a wave B, which also established a similar resistance, a further drop to 3,891 ringgit could be likely.
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