SINGAPORE: CBOT soybeans may fall to $12.82 in the fourth quarter, as the support at $14.01 looks unable to hold.
A five-wave cycle from $7.81 has completed around the 2012 high of $17.95.
Theoretically, the current fall could extend to any level above $8.08, the wave (2) bottom.
A shallow correction could extend to $11.64, the wave (4) bottom.
A realistic target will be $12.82, which looks promising while the contract is determined to break $14.01.
The chance of a break seems high, after the contract failed in its first attempt in July.
CBOT soybeans may retest resistance at $14.31-1/4
A close above $14.01 by the end of September would signal the second failure to overcome this barrier.
The contract may either hover above $14.01 for some time or bounce towards $15.47.
From a longer perspective, the uptrend from $7.81 could be categorised as a part of the uptrend from $4.02.
Based on this categorisation, the fall may end around $11.64.
Alternatively, the trend from $7.81 could be a part of a giant flat pattern developing from $17.95.
This is a rather bearish scenario that the contract may fall to $7.81.
The current focus is on the support of $14.01 and the target zone of $11.64-$12.82. On the daily chart, the contract has more or less broken a pivotal support at $14.05.
The break wipes out the chance of the uptrend from $11.71 to extend towards $17.84.
It also significantly increases the chance of a fall to $11.71.
A projection analysis on the current wave C reveals a support of $13.62, which may temporarily stop the fall and trigger a pullback towards $14.05-$14.50 range.
The downtrend is expected to resume soon, with a stronger momentum and faster speed.
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