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MUMBAI: India could export a record 7.5 million tonnes of sugar in the 2021/22 marketing year, nearly 25% more than the previous estimate, with output set to reach a record high thanks to beneficial weather, a leading trade body said on Friday.

Higher exports from the world’s second-biggest sugar producer could weigh on global prices.,.

Mills have so far signed contracts to export 6 million tonnes of sugar in the current marketing year that ends on Sept. 30. Of that, 4.2 million tonnes had been physically moved by the end of February, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.

India is likely to produce a record 33.3 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, nearly 5.9% more than the previous estimate, with output set to jump in the western state of Maharashtra and neighbouring Karnataka, the ISMA said. Maharashtra’s sugar output is likely to reach a record 12.6 million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 11.7 million tonnes, the trade body said. Karnataka’s output estimate was revised up to 5.5 million tonnes from 4.52 million tonnes, it said.

The trade body also raised its consumption estimate by 2.6% to 27.2 million tonnes as sales rose in the first four months of the marketing year.

A rise in the amount of sugar diverted to ethanol production along with higher domestic demand and record high exports is expected to bring down stockpiles at the start of the new season on Oct. 1 to 6.8 million tonnes, compared with 8.2 million tonnes a year earlier, the trade body said.

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