FORT COLLINS, (Colo.,): Speculators’ hugely bullish corn gamble that was set in motion late last year has paid off so far with recent outlooks suggesting global corn supplies could remain tight into 2022. Chicago corn futures last week hit contract highs in nearby and deferred months, further backing that thesis.
But it seems that commodity funds may have found a ceiling on their corn bets, at least for now, because they sold the yellow grain even after the US government revealed farmers’ plans for fewer 2021 acres than expected.
In the four-session week ended April 6, money managers reduced their net long in CBOT corn futures and options by nearly 9,000 contracts to 386,619 contracts according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Most of that move was funds’ removal of gross longs, but they have also been very uninterested in being short during such volatile times. Money managers’ gross shorts numbered just 26,475 contracts as of April 6, the fewest since October 2012.
May corn futures rose nearly 3% during that week and December corn jumped almost 7% after the US Department of Agriculture on March 31 pegged US corn plantings at 91.1 million acres, below the range of estimates. Open interest was up 2% during the week ended April 6.
USDA on Friday published its monthly supply and demand estimates, which painted a slightly smaller than expected corn stocks picture in the near term. Two days earlier, US corn-based ethanol stocks were shown to have fallen well below average levels for the time of year, also supporting nearby corn.
May corn surged 4.1% over the last three sessions, reaching a contract high of $5.95 per bushel on Friday. December corn was up 2.7% during the period and notched a high of $5.03-3/4 on Friday, the first time since 2014 that the contract in expiration year rose above $5 in the expiration year.
Trade estimates suggest funds bought 50,000 corn futures contracts over the last three sessions.
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