Thin volume, stimulus expectations leave yields flat

NEW YORK: US Treasury yields were roughly flat on Wednesday morning in thin trading as investors bet that Republicans were unlikely to approve the passage of proposed $2,000 coronavirus relief checks.

The chances of a bigger stimulus check dimmed on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell put off a vote on increasing the COVID-19 relief checks from $600 to $2,000.

Volume is likely to remain thin in the United States and Europe this week, with some European markets closed on Thursday and all markets shut on Friday for New Year's Day.

"The market is as quiet and low volume as it has been in a very long time. It doesn't take much for one flow to move the market. I don't see a reason why we gravitate too far away from these levels," said Justin Lederer, Treasury analyst and trader at Cantor Fitzgerald.

"The only headline out there that would be a large market mover would be if the $2,000 stimulus checks were passed."

In morning trade, the benchmark 10-year yield was roughly flat at 0.936%, up 0.1 basis point from Tuesday.

"Since the Fed we've been trading back and forth in a range. I'd be very surprised if we broke 1% (on the 10-year yield) in the next day and a half," said Lederer.

At the front end of the curve, the two-year yield was unchanged at 0.127%. The largest move across maturities was in the 30-year yield which was up 0.6 basis point to 1.680%.

The move in the long bond steepened one measure of the yield curve - the spread between the five- and 30-year yields - by 0.4 basis point to 130 basis points.

The spread between the two- and 10-year yield , which last week hit its widest in more than three years on increased risk appetite and expectations of higher inflation, was flat at 80.8 basis points. Since late July, the gap between US two-year and 10-year yields has widened by roughly 50 basis points.

The breakeven rate on the 10-year TIPS, which measures the expected annual inflation for the next 10 years, slipped to 1.960%, from the close on Tuesday at 1.967%.