Raw sugar extends gains, with India exports still on hold

LONDON: ICE raw sugar prices edged up on Friday after sharp gains in the previous session, with the market holding an upside bias as traders await news from India on its sugar export policy.

SUGAR

March raw sugar rose 0.4 cents, or 0.3%, to 14.95 cents per lb at 1123 GMT, heading back towards last week's 8 month top of 15.23 cents.

India's sugar export policy for this season has yet to be announced, and there is widespread uncertainty over the subsidy rate, which could hit shipments if it falls far short of last season's.

Dealers said the sugar price trend is positive in the short term, with exports from Thailand sharply reduced, Indian exports on hold for now, and Asian economies gaining some control over the coronavirus pandemic.

December white sugar, which expires later this session, rose $1.1, or 0.3%, to $408.

Ukrainian sugar refineries have produced 642,000 tonnes of white sugar in the 2020-2021 season that started Sept 1, with output expected to fall 15% in the full year.

COFFEE

December arabica coffee fell 0.7 cents, or 0.6%, to $1.1230 per lb.

"We remain neutral-to-bearish Arabica and adjust our 0-3 month point-price target down to $1.07/lb, as a wide surplus of 4.3 million bags for the 2020/21 crop year is pencilled," said Citi in a monthly report.

January robusta coffee fell $1, or 0.07%, to $1,412 a tonne, having earlier hit its highest since mid-September.

Fresh coffee supply from top grower Vietnam's 2020/21 robusta harvest has yet to pick up because heavy rains over the past month have disrupted cherry picking.

COCOA

March New York cocoa fell $14, or 0.6%, to $2,342 a tonne.

Citi sees New York cocoa averaging $2,315/t in 2021, and maintained its forecast for a 300,000 tonne surplus next year given prospects for a record global harvest.

It sees demand steadying next year as economies recover from the pandemic, but said vaccine deployment could only be a game changer for 2021/22 consumption.

March London cocoa fell 13 pounds, or 0.8%, to 1,598 pounds per tonne.