Thai exports, imports shrink more than expected in April

Thailand's customs-cleared exports fell more than expected in April after two straight months of growth, commerce ministry data showed, as the trade-dependent economy continues to face weak global demand. Exports fell 8.0 percent from the same period last year, much worse than the median forecast of a fall of 1.25 percent in a Reuters poll. The ministry blamed the poor exports last month on global economic uncertainty and falling commodity and oil prices.
"This is shocking - the market will once again be worried about exports," said Charnon Boonnuch, senior economist at Tisco Securities. "Even more of a concern now is a slump in imports which is a bad sign for both exports and investments in the future." Imports plunged 14.92 percent in April from a year earlier, deeper than the 7.65 percent decline in a Reuters poll. That is an indication that exports will remain weak as many imported items are parts assembled into finished goods and shipped out.
In March, shipments rose 1.3 percent on-year following February's 10.27 percent increase, though these gain came from unusual items, namely military helicopters and gold shipments. Despite the weak April exports, the economy should still grow 3.3 percent this year, as forecast, due to improved consumption and higher value-added tax revenue stemming from government stimulus measures, Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong told reporters on Wednesday.
The export decline in April was led by falls of 7.8 percent in industrial goods, 5.3 percent in electronics and 2.8 percent in agricultural products. Shipments to major markets were all lower, including declines of 10.3 percent to Japan, 6.7 percent to the United States and 1.1 percent to Europe.
Shipments to Southeast Asian countries declined 4.8 percent and those to China fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier. Exports, worth about two-thirds of Thailand's economic output, have contracted over the past three years and the central bank has forecast they will fall 2 percent this year. That's one reason why Thailand's military junta has struggled to revive Southeast Asia's second-largest economy after taking power in May 2014. Domestic demand, another growth driver, has also been sluggish. The economy grew 0.9 percent in January-March on-quarter and 3.2 percent on-year, but the recovery has remained fragile. The central bank has forecast economic growth of 3.1 percent this year. Growth last year was 2.8 percent.