MADISON: Favorable late-season rains and milder temperatures should result in above-average corn and soybean yields in southeast South Dakota, according to crop scouts on an annual survey of the top US production states.
But a more advanced corn crop could trim yield potential slightly as hot weather earlier in the summer accelerated crop maturity and may prevent kernels from fattening as much as they would in a more prolonged season, scouts said on the first day of the four-day Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
The midsummer heat also limited end-to-end pollination on ears in some fields.
Corn yields along one route of the tour were calculated at 168.5 bushels per acre (bpa) on average, based on samples from five fields in Minnehaha, McCook, Hanson, Davison and Aurora counties. That was above average yields of 158.6 bpa in the same area last year and the tour's three-year average of 165.4 bpa. But it was slightly below the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection for the state.
"These are the districts that USDA is thinking would pull up the state yield. Based on what we've seen this morning, they may be a little high," said Ted Seifried, analyst with Zaner Ag Hedge and a scout on the tour.
The tour surveys fields mostly in the southeast corner of South Dakota, skipping the drier areas further west.
The USDA earlier this month projected corn yields at 170 bpa in South Dakota, a record high for the No. 6 corn producing state and up from 145 bpa a year ago.
Soybean yield potential was also strong as timely late-season rains helped boost pod counts following hot, dry weather earlier in the season. Recent rain, including a storm that passed through the region on Sunday, should boost pod filling.
"This rain was very timely. This crop should finish well," Seifried said.
Soybean pod counts per 3-foot-by-3-foot square averaged 1,295 pods, compared with 892 pods last year and the three-year average of 993.
Scouts do not estimate yields in soybean fields but instead estimate pods in 3-by-3-foot plots to gauge yield potential.
The western leg of the tour begins in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and the eastern leg begins in Columbus, Ohio, with the two groups converging in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday. Pro Farmer will release its estimates of US crop production on Friday, drawing from data collected on the tour and other sources.
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