Firmer Asia FX, oil dip offer little comfort to Indian rupee as NDF maturities pinch

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended modestly weaker on Thursday, unable to benefit from a dip in oil prices and broad strength in regional currencies in the face of dollar demand linked to maturing non-deliverable forward contracts.

The Indian rupee closed at 96.3450 per dollar, down 0.1% from its previous close and hovering close to its weakest level in nearly two months.

The currency has fallen back to levels seen before policymakers announced a host of measures to shore up dollar inflows, ranging from incentives for overseas dollar deposits to removal of taxes on foreign investments in government debt.

Traders have pointed to elevated dollar demand from merchants alongside intermittent NDF maturities that have hurt the rupee, like on Thursday.

“Technically, the 95.80-96.00 resistance zone has been decisively breached, with USD/INR now trading comfortably above it. As long as the pair sustains above this area, the path of least resistance remains higher,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.

Elsewhere, Asian currencies were mostly stronger by 0.1% to 0.4% while the dollar index was steady at 100.5. Asian stocks were in the red but India’s benchmark equity index, Nifty 50, held its ground to close little changed as Brent crude oil prices dipped below $85 per barrel.

Iran said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was an inviolable “red line”, warning that if U.S. President Donald Trump carried out his threat to attack Iran’s infrastructure, it would strike all infrastructure across the Gulf region.

The U.S. launched a fifth night of attacks on Wednesday and re-imposed a naval blockade of Iran’s ports, which Washington says is aimed at reopening the key energy artery.

“We continue to see two-sided risks to our Brent crude price forecast of $80 in 2026 Q4 and $75 in 2027, with risks skewed to the upside in the near term as the risk of further attacks on tankers and Middle East energy infrastructure has increased,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.