Anti-dumping duties on soda ash: Stakeholders voice concern over NTC’s final determination

ISLAMABAD: The National Tariff Commission’s Final Determination in the Soda Ash anti-dumping investigation has triggered strong criticism from downstream industrial consumers and trade stakeholders, who allegedly describe the injury determination as legally flawed, economically unsustainable and contrary to the Commission’s own established practices.

A definitive anti-dumping duties imposed on imports of disodium carbonate (soda ash) from Turkiye and Kenya for a period of five years.

The respondents (Soap Manufacturers Association; Colgate International; Chemical Manufacturers; International Silicate; Pakistan Glass Manufacturers Association) have alleged and levelled these allegations in their comments on the Statement of Essential Facts issued by the Commission and reiterated their concerns during meetings with the Commission.

These concerns were subsequently submitted in writing well before the Final Determination. However, according to the respondents (associations), the Commission allegedly proceeded with the Final Determination without addressing or taking notice of these grave allegations, thereby raising serious questions about the credibility and impartiality of the proceedings.

According to stakeholders’ allegations, the Commission has attempted to portray a threat of material injury whereas no actual material injury suffered by the applicants (two companies).

The stakeholders argued that in this case the applicants remained unduly influential throughout the investigation. In spite of having more than 95 percent of the domestic market share, remained profitable during the period of investigation (POI), expanded installed production capacities by approximately 20 percent, and even described its own Soda Ash business as “resilient” in its Annual Report. Being a quasi-judicial authority, the Commission was expected to remain neutral and uphold the credibility it has historically enjoyed, they added.

Industry representatives accused that these facts are fundamentally inconsistent with a finding of threat of material injury and instead demonstrate a healthy and expanding domestic industry.

Stakeholders further alleged that the Commission ignored compelling evidence showing that the decline in sales, inventories, cash flows or capacity utilisation resulted from weak domestic demand, global market conditions, voluntary export reallocation and the domestic industry’s own commercial decisions, “Rather than dumped imports”. They argued that the threat of injury (Not even actual injury) has been wrongly attributed to dumped imports just to make out a case of anti-dumping duty.

One of the most controversial aspects of the determination, according to respondents, is the construction of the Non-Injurious Price (NIP). They alleged that the Commission adopted an extraordinary 10 percent profit assumption, despite reportedly using a 5 percent benchmark in numerous previous anti-dumping investigations.

The respondents contend that no convincing justification was provided for this departure and that the higher assumed profit artificially inflated the Non-Injurious Price, thereby increasing the injury margin and resulting anti-dumping duties.

Legal experts note that if a regulatory authority departs from its own long-established methodology, it is ordinarily expected to provide a clear and reasoned explanation. Stakeholders argue that the unexplained departure raises serious questions regarding the consistency and objectivity of the injury determination.

Respondents (associations) had also relied on WTO jurisprudence, including the Pakistan – BOPP Films (UAE) dispute, arguing that an investigating authority must provide a reasoned and adequate explanation linking the evidence to its findings and cannot simply reproduce data before reaching conclusions.

The Final Determination has also revived longstanding concerns expressed by some stakeholders regarding the Commission’s decision-making process.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026