The revival of cotton in Pakistan is possible provided farmer’s economic decision-making is placed at the center. A farmer always evaluates: “Will cotton provide greater profit and security, or will sugarcane/maize?”
During the 2025–26 season, Pakistan’s total cotton production stood at only 5.607 million bales (PCGA report), approximately 45% below the set target of 10.2 million bales. This situation reflects that the country’s cotton sector is facing a serious crisis. The most notable and unusual development of this season emerged at the provincial level, where Sindh produced 2.915 million bales from approximately 1.3 million acres, while Punjab produced 2.693 million bales from 3.5 million acres. Thus, Sindh surpassed Punjab—an indication not only of shifting agricultural trends but also of changing economic conditions. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in cotton acreage in Punjab has emerged as a matter of serious concern.
Several key factors contributed to Sindh’s advantage. Foremost among them is timely or early sowing. Due to the earlier onset of heat in Sindh compared to Punjab, farmers begin cotton cultivation as early as February and March, allowing the crop to mature before the monsoon rains and severe attacks of pink bollworm. In contrast, delayed sowing in Punjab, coupled with intense heat waves, led to fruit-shedding and significantly affected yields.
Moreover, the better availability of canal water in Sindh through the Sukkur, Guddu, and Kotri barrages helped control production costs. In Punjab, however, water scarcity forced farmers to rely on expensive tube-wells, which, combined with rising electricity and diesel costs, rendered cotton cultivation unprofitable.
At the same time, the continuous decline in cotton acreage in Punjab has been a critical factor, as farmers, faced with increasing risks and costs, are shifting toward alternative crops such as sugarcane, maize, and rice. The presence of sugar mills has further promoted sugarcane cultivation, while urban expansion and housing societies have reduced available agricultural land.
Additionally, the availability of substandard seeds and poor-quality pesticides in Punjab has remained a serious issue, weakening crops against pests, particularly pink bollworm and whitefly. In contrast, farmers in Sindh have adopted relatively better seed quality and modern agronomic practices.
From a financial perspective as well, a clear disparity is evident. Large landholders in Sindh have the capacity to bear the high costs of fertilizers and sprays, whereas small farmers in Punjab, due to rising production expenses, are reluctant to invest in a labour-intensive crop like cotton.
Furthermore, price protection and relatively easier market access in Sindh have sustained farmers’ confidence, enabling the province to gain a clear edge at the national level. In Punjab, however, expensive energy, water scarcity, poor agricultural inputs, and the growing trend toward alternative crops have constrained cotton production. This situation demands that, if cotton revival in Punjab is intended, immediate and effective attention must be given to seed quality, reduction in production costs, and farmer-friendly policies.
Cotton cultivation is now only viable for farmers who are adept in modern technology and precise timing. The shrinking cotton acreage in Punjab indicates that the balance between the “price of seed cotton (phutti)” and “cost of production” has been disrupted, and farmers can no longer afford sustained losses.
Under current conditions, the per-acre production cost of cotton—covering expensive seeds, fertilizers, diesel, and sprays—has reached approximately PKR 110,000. If a farmer, after all efforts and favourable conditions, achieves a yield of 18 to 28 maunds (average 23 maunds) per acre and receives a market price of PKR 8,000 per maund, total income amounts to PKR 184,000. This leaves a net profit of only PKR 74,000 after six months of intensive labour and harsh climatic conditions, which translates to roughly PKR 12,000 per month.
These figures clearly indicate that cotton has become an extremely “risky” crop. Even a slight drop in the market price below PKR 8,000 per maund, or a minor decline in yield due to factors such as pink bollworm, whitefly, or heatwaves, can wipe out the farmer’s capital and push them toward bankruptcy. This economic imbalance has driven farmers in Punjab away from cotton toward alternative crops like sugarcane, maize, and rice.
Sindh’s advantage is essentially the result of better timing and early sowing, which has helped control production costs. In contrast, the shrinking cotton area in Punjab reflects that the average farmer can no longer bear this economic gamble.
In contrast to this uncertainty, the organized system of the sugar industry acts as a strong shield for farmers. Mill owners provide advance payments and input support—such as fertilizers, seeds, and sprays—at the time of sowing, easing the initial financial burden. Additionally, guaranteed procurement by sugar mills eliminates the risk of price crashes or lack of buyers in the market. Sugarcane, being a relatively resilient crop, is also better able to withstand adverse weather conditions than cotton.
Similarly, maize offers quick maturity and strong demand from the poultry industry, allowing farmers to harvest multiple crops per year and optimize land use and profits. Compared to these structured support systems, cotton farmers feel isolated and insecure. This is why farmers in southern Punjab and parts of Sindh are rapidly shifting away from cotton toward crops where their investment and effort are more secure.
A sustainable solution to this issue lies in comprehensive reform of the agricultural structure and its alignment with modern technology. The fundamental objective must be to make cotton cultivation economically more attractive, profitable, and less risky than competing cash crops. For this, the textile industry—the largest end-user of cotton—must emerge not merely as a buyer but as an active partner.
The textile sector must establish direct linkages with farmers, similar to the sugar industry model, including the provision of quality seed, transfer of technical knowledge, and guaranteed procurement. When farmers receive financial security through industrial collaboration and government support, cotton acreage will expand, and reliance on imports will decline.
The stance of the ginning industry, operating in the cotton belt, is also critically important. Ginners have consistently opposed the establishment of new sugar mills in cotton-growing areas, arguing that it will further reduce cotton acreage and disturb the local economic balance. In this context, the textile industry must assume responsibility by adopting the sugar industry model and providing incentives to cotton farmers. The ginning sector must act as a bridge, facilitating collaboration and ensuring farmers receive the economic security needed to return to cotton cultivation.
For restoring farmer confidence, immediate and tangible economic measures are essential. Targeted subsidies on agricultural inputs should be provided through farmer cards, offering 30–50% relief on DAP, urea, seeds, and diesel exclusively for cotton growers. With current prices of DAP ranging from PKR 12,000 to 15,000 and urea around PKR 4,500, such subsidies could reduce per-acre costs by PKR 25,000 to 40,000, making cotton more competitive.
Strict zoning laws must be enforced to limit sugarcane cultivation in the cotton belt, particularly in southern Punjab and selected districts of Sindh. Farmers should be offered a special bonus of PKR 5,000 to 10,000 per acre for cotton cultivation, along with a price protection mechanism before sowing.
To ensure transparency in markets, the role of middlemen must be reduced by establishing direct procurement centers through the Trading Corporation of Pakistan or provincial bodies, alongside digital trading platforms. A premium of PKR 500 to 1,000 per maund should be introduced for “clean picking,” with textile mills as active partners.
Crop insurance must be simplified and subsidized to protect farmers against pests and climatic shocks, while free digital advisory services and certified seeds should be ensured to combat pink bollworm and whitefly. With timely water availability and support for early sowing, cotton acreage could increase by 15–25%, reducing import dependence and stabilizing the economy.
For long-term sustainability, a structured five-year strategy must be adopted alongside immediate measures. This strategy should integrate modern genomics and biotechnology, bringing all relevant institutions under a coordinated framework—particularly in the context of the proposed merger of PCCC and PARC—to develop resilient cotton varieties.
Research should focus on developing short-duration, compact plants suitable for mechanized picking, enabling higher yields and even multiple cropping cycles annually. High-density planting, improved land preparation, balanced fertilization, and modern growth management techniques should also be promoted.
At the institutional level, a high-level national platform must be established to ensure coordinated policymaking and implementation, involving provincial representatives, agricultural experts, and textile stakeholders. A permanent expert group should be formed to maintain policy continuity.
A pilot network of progressive farmers should be created to test new technologies, serving as practical models for wider adoption. PARC, in the context of the proposed merger, should play a central role in coordination, monitoring, and standardization of research.
Finally, a clear implementation timeline is essential, linking short-term economic incentives with long-term sustainability. Immediate measures must include price protection and input subsidies at sowing time, along with digital procurement systems and farmer cooperatives by the harvesting stage.
Ultimately, cotton revival is not about meetings or long-term claims alone—it requires direct economic incentives for farmers combined with effective use of modern technology. If short-term measures such as subsidized inputs, zoning laws, and transparent markets are implemented promptly, and long-term reforms in seed development and research are sustained, cotton acreage and production can significantly increase within two to three years.
This progress will not only ensure farmers’ prosperity but also strengthen the textile industry, boost exports, and stabilize the national economy—eliminating the need for costly cotton imports.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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