Declining bias persists for Indian bonds as oil stays higher, no end to war visible

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds are expected to ease at the start of a new week, as oil prices remain well above $100 per barrel, while aggressive central bank bond purchases are likely to cap a larger selloff.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield will likely hover between 6.67% and 6.70%, a private bank trader said.

The yield had ended at 6.6798% on Friday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

“As we head into the last few days of the financial year, people may not want to add large positions, as the next year’s borrowing calendar is also heavy; the central bank’s action and developments on the war front will guide,” the trader said.

Brent crude held near $105 per barrel on Monday as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its third week, threatening oil infrastructure and keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut.

The contract has surged by more than 40% since the war broke out, with US President Donald Trump now calling on other countries to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices are negative for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, as they threaten to worsen domestic inflation.

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.21% in February. Record bond purchases from the Reserve Bank of India continue to soothe market sentiment.

Data showed the RBI net bought bonds worth 572.1 billion rupees ($6.2 billion) in the week after the war broke out on February 28.

The RBI also complemented these purchases by buying another 1 trillion rupees in bonds through open-market operations last week.

Traders said the RBI was active in the secondary market last week as well, and the data would be released on March 20.