Indian Rupee hits record low, sapped by hedging demand and outflows

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee fell to a lifetime low on Tuesday as weak risk appetite amplified lingering pressure from hedging demand and portfolio outflows amid continued uncertainty over a U.S. trade deal.

The Indian rupee fell to 91.0750 per dollar before ending 0.3% lower at 91.0275. It has declined over 6% against the greenback this year and is among the worst performing emerging market currencies in 2025.

The South Asian unit hit an all-time low for the fourth consecutive session, with traders anticipating that the central bank may step in more aggressively to avoid a speculative build-up against the currency.

A rebound in the rupee is considered unlikely without a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations.

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India’s exports leapt in November in defiance of steep U.S. tariffs, providing fresh leverage in ongoing trade talks with Washington and easing pressure on New Delhi to strike a quick deal.

“Looking ahead, the base case is for ‘mild, not wild’ depreciation of the INR against the USD. The INR is projected at 90/USD by June 2026 and 92/USD by June 2027, with the pace of depreciation dependent on evolution of capital flows and global risk appetite,” Axis Bank said in a note on Tuesday.

Foreign investors have net sold over $18 billion of local stocks so far in 2025. The a risk-off mood in global markets also singed Indian stocks on Tuesday, dragging down the benchmark Nifty 50 by 0.6%.

Investors are treading lightly ahead of a slate of U.S. data later in the day that will help gauge the U.S. rate trajectory next year.

MSCI’s gauge of Asian equities outside of Japan fell over 1%, while regional currencies were mixed and the dollar was steady against a basket of major peers.