Brazil inflation slows in February, boosting rate cut bets

BRASILIA: Brazil's inflation rate slowed for a second month in February, the latest in a string of weak price figures that has boosted bets on an interest rate cut this month.

Consumer prices tracked by the benchmark IPCA index rose 2.84 percent in the twelve months through February, in line with the median 2.85 percent forecast in a Reuters survey of economists.

That keeps the index far below the bottom end of the official target range, of 4.5 percent plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, a worrying sign for the central bank after it failed to lift inflation to its goal last year for the first time.

Food prices fell in the month, dashing hopes that a months-long period of food deflation driven by a strong harvest had come to an end. Meanwhile, school tuition fees, which tend to rise in February, increased less than in same period of 2017.

But underlying inflation trends also remained muted, weighed down by double-digit unemployment rates, idle capacity among companies and a slower-than-expected economic recovery.

In a report, Goldman Sachs estimated that so-called core inflation, which strips the index of volatile prices, slowed to 3.24 percent from 3.34 percent the month before. Price increases were also less widespread than in the previous month, they said.

The IPCA rose 0.32 percent from January, matching the consensus estimate in the Reuters poll, the lowest reading for February since 2000.

Recent figures showing slow inflation "have increased significantly the probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the March 21 Copom meeting," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos wrote in the report.

At its last policy meeting, the central bank's Copom rate-setting committee had strongly hinted that it could end the deepest easing cycle in a decade, which brought the benchmark Selic rate to an all-time low of 6.75 percent.

But central bank chief Ilan Goldfajn acknowledged this week that the recent string of low inflation prints caught policymakers by surprise, driving investors to increase bets in a final rate cut this month.