SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit one-week highs on Thursday as their U.S. counterpart felt the heavy weight of rate cut bets, growth worries and tariff jitters, although stiff chart resistance loomed.
The two also found some support from better risk appetite led by global stocks and from still strong Chinese trade data that showed exports beat forecasts in July as manufacturers made the most of a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington.
The Aussie edged up 0.2% at $0.6516, the highest in a week, having gained 0.5% overnight. It is well off a six-week low of $0.6419 but only back to the middle of the recent trading range between 64 cents and 66 cents.
The kiwi dollar rose 0.3% to a one-week top of $0.5944, after rising 0.4% overnight. Major resistance lies at $0.6059 and $0.6120.
Overnight, the dollar took another tumble from rising prospects of sooner and deeper Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said July jobs data was “concerning” and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may need to respond to a slowing economy.
Investors are closely watching Trump’s pick to fill a coming vacancy on the Fed’s Board of Governors and candidates for the next chair of the central bank for the impact on monetary policy.
Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. In total, traders see 60.5 basis points in cuts this year.
Analysts at the National Australia Bank expect the Australian dollar to appreciate to 70 cents, but after a 2.4% fall in July, they revised their forecasts lower to 66 cents by September and 68 cents by December.
“Still pivotal to our weaker USD view is that the economy is in the midst of a cyclical downturn, with US growth converging towards the rate experienced in other major developing countries, extinguishing the U.S. economy’s ‘exceptionalism’.”
Also aiding the Aussie a little is local data that showed Australia’s surplus on goods trade rebounded sharply in June as exports of gold and coal shot higher.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week and is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 3.6% on Tuesday, after skipping a chance to move last month in rare dissent.
“We also expect the ‘vote split’ to disappear at this meeting, with a 9-0 vote for a 25bp cut,” said Phil Odonaghoe, an economist at Deutsche Bank.
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