S. Asia faces prospect of ‘water war’?

Predictions by the United Nations and the World Bank state that water scarcity impacts approximately 40 percent of the world’s population, with up to 700 million people at risk of displacement due to drought by 2030. A World Bank report has stated that water scarcity, aggravated by climate change, could hamper economic growth, lead to migration, and trigger conflicts.

World Economic Forum has water challenges under its focus. A paper presented at this forum, way back in October 2018, by Paul Ratner — titled: “Where will the ‘water wars’ of the future be fought?” highlighted the five most vulnerable hotspots as the Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Indus, Tigris-Euphrates, and Colorado rivers. The paper paints a disturbing picture of a nearby future where people are fighting over access to water.

Now South Asia is witnessing a ‘water war’ era where hydro-political issues have flared up between China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh with China, India, and Pakistan begin constructing dams at unprecedented pace as water sources becoming scarce.

Water scarcity with growing population, climate change, glacier melt, and monsoon unpredictability are intensifying regional dependence on rivers.

China’s recent announcement to construct the world’s largest hydroelectric power project on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra River’s upstream segment in Tibet), estimated to cost USD 170 billion, has attracted reactions from India and Bangladesh, both rely heavily on the Brahmaputra’s waters. This megaproject ignites strategic tensions in an already volatile region.

India’s concerns are loss of water control, strategic vulnerability and seismic sensitivity. India fears upstream diversion could dry up the Brahmaputra during critical agricultural seasons. India fears that China’s strategic control of the headwaters could be a pressure tactic in any future Sino-Indian military standoff.

The Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river that flows from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh and Assam (India), then into Bangladesh. The dam in question is to be built at the “Great Bend,” where the river curves sharply before entering India. This is the most hydrologically and seismic sensitive part.

Bangladesh receives around 70 percent of its freshwater inflow from India; a reduction in Brahmaputra flows due to upstream Chinese control could lead to saline intrusion, crop failure, and food insecurity. Furthermore, Bangladesh and India have unresolved disputes over Teesta River sharing.

China describes the planned dam as a clean energy triumph and considers the concerns of India and Bangladesh as unfounded. It claims the project is for hydropower (not irrigation or large-scale diversion).

India’s suspension of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and its unilateral water control on western rivers belonging to Pakistan (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) can lead to conflicts if not wars.

China’s Brahmaputra Dam could work as a leverage. With China as an upper riparian power on another major South Asian river system, Pakistan can work to diplomatically highlight India’s double standards — protesting Chinese upstream control while exercising it over Pakistan downstream.

If India escalates its water weaponization, Pakistan could align more closely with China and even propose regional water negotiations including all key stakeholders — possibly under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

China’s action serves Pakistan’s interest in regionalizing the water discourse, challenging India’s long-standing resistance to multilateral water negotiations

At the heart of the matter is water sovereignty and regional power dynamics. With India unilaterally suspending parts of the Indus Waters Treaty after the Pulwama incident and subsequent tensions with Pakistan, the emergence of China as an upper riparian power is now rebalancing the equation — particularly for Pakistan, which may see an unexpected leverage.

War over water? Not yet. But the seeds are sown.

While a literal “water war” may still be far away, the politicization of rivers is undeniably underway. Asia’s great rivers are no longer just lifelines — they are becoming lines of control, lines of contention, and lines of influence.

Unless water is treated as a shared climate asset, not a sovereignty token, this region, which is home to a fifth of the world’s population, may soon face a crisis deeper than politics: the crisis of thirst.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025