KARACHI: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its seasonal outlook for the upcoming monsoon season, forecasting normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in large parts of the country, alongside above-normal temperatures expected to persist nationwide.
According to the PMD, the monsoon rainfall pattern from July to September 2025 is likely to bring normal to slightly enhanced precipitation across the central and southern regions, with the north-eastern parts of Punjab and Kashmir seeing the highest deviations from average. In contrast, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) may experience normal to below-normal rainfall, setting a potentially dry trend for these upper mountainous regions.
Adding to the climate concern, higher-than-normal temperatures are forecast throughout the country, with the most significant departures expected in Kashmir, GB, and adjoining parts of KP. These elevated temperatures pose serious risks by accelerating snowmelt, which could cause rising river levels and an increased chance of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
The PMD cautions that the combined effect of intense rainfall and heat could trigger extreme hydro-meteorological events, especially over catchments’ areas. These conditions may lead to riverine flooding in major river systems. Additionally, flash flooding and urban inundation are anticipated in hill torrent regions and major urban centers of Sindh, Punjab, Kashmir, and KP, particularly during the first half of the monsoon season.
Communities should also prepare for strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms resulting from sharp temperature gradients.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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