Goldman cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff fears, higher OPEC+ supply

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent crude’s average price this year by 5.5% to $69 a barrel and for WTI prices by 4.3% to $66, citing the risks of higher OPEC+ supply and the global trade war triggering a recession.

The Wall Street brokerage also chopped its 2026 average price forecast for Brent by 9% to $62 and for WTI by 6.3% to $59, and warned that the new estimates could be lowered further.

“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” Goldman analysts said in a note.

Brent crude was priced at $69.59 a barrel as of 0408 GMT on Friday, while WTI was at $66.39.

Crude prices posted their biggest percentage drops since 2022 on Thursday after US President Donald Trump slapped reciprocal tariffs on many countries and eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly advanced their plan to phase out production cuts by boosting output in May.

Oil set for worst week in months over Trump’s new tariffs

The latter, said Goldman, showed OPEC’s flexibility to rapidly implement large output hikes, which diminished the likelihood of a price boost in the short term from lower supply.

The brokerage said it now expects oil demand to grow by only 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from its previous forecast of 900,000 bpd, and to increase by 700,000 bpd in 2026.