Russian wheat export prices up

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week as exports declined ahead of quotas taking effect in the middle of the month, analysts said.

Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March was up $2 from the previous week to $245 FOB per metric ton.

“We have a reduction in exports, a reduction in the number of exporters, sector consolidation. In the face of this background, the price is rising, as we expected,” Rylko said.

The Russian government allows traders to export as much as they can in the first half of the season from July to February but then

restricts exports with quotas, which it cut by 63% this year to 10.6 million metric tons. The quotas take effect on February 15.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at between $241 and $245 per ton, compared with $237 to $239 the previous week.

The ?gency noted an increase in demand for wheat from exporters.

“Some are likely trying to secure grain before export quotas take effect on February 15,” Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.

Weekly grain exports were estimated last week at 0.64 million tons, including 0.58 million tons of wheat. This was down from 0.66 million tons in the previous week, when it included 0.59 million tons of wheat, Sovecon said.

The agency’s first estimates for February wheat exports are 1.8–2.2 million tons, compared with 4.1 million tons a year earlier. IKAR estimates February wheat exports at 2.0 million to 2.2 million tons, railway carrier Rusagrotrans at 2.4-2.5 million tons, based on information on the increase in the number of vessels approaching Russian ports. IKAR cut its 2024/25 wheat export forecast on Monday to 43 million metric tons from 43.5 million tons, citing low stocks in the world’s top wheat exporter and low margins as the main factors.

Sovecon revised up its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2025/2026 season last week to 38.3 million tons from 36.4 million tons.

IKAR also cut on Monday its 2025 wheat production estimates to 82 million tons from 84 million tons previously in a baseline scenario, saying that forecast freezing temperatures in a winter of little snow could affect crops.

It also cut its wheat production estimate to 77 million tons from 79 million tons in a pessimistic scenario and to 87 million tons from 89 million tons in an optimistic scenario.

“A more severe cold snap is expected in mid-February, though the risk of winterkill appears limited due to accumulating snow cover and a lack of extremely low temperatures,” Sovecon analysts noted.