Russian wheat export prices flat; analysts expect shipments decline

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices have remained almost unchanged since the beginning of the year, with trading muted by the long New Year holidays and weak demand while analysts expect shipments to fall in January.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the first part of February was $237 a metric ton, unchanged from the price in the last week of December.

The Sovecon consultancy put prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at $235 to $240 a ton, compared with $233 to $239 the previous week.

Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.41 million metric tons, including 0.4 million tons of wheat, down from 0.55 million tons of grain the previous week.

Sovecon estimates January wheat exports to be between 1.8 million and 2.2 million tons, which could be the lowest since January 2017, when Russia exported 1.9 million tons. This figure is close to the volumes exported in January 2022, when Russia exported 2.0 million tons.

IKAR estimates January wheat exports at 2.2 million to 2.5 million tons, down from 3.8 million tons in December.

“Russian exports are expected to remain slow. Exporters’ margins are low and Russian FOB is relatively expensive. Passing lower values to the domestic market could be challenging for traders,” Sovecon analysts said.