Copper edges down on uncertainty

LONDON: Copper prices dipped on Monday as investors awaited more news about potential US tariffs and Chinese stimulus, while aluminium retreated as the market digested news about China’s scrapping of export rebates.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.3% to $8,978 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading, having shed 11% since touching a four-month high on Sept. 30.

“The initial election response has faded for now. The dollar stopped rallying further, so that’s adding some stability back into the market,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

“The market is looking into January and trying to gauge what kind of impact tariffs and trade wars will have on demand, so for now, that will keep the market trading very cautiously.” The dollar index eased slightly on Monday, having touched a one-year peak on Friday after surging following the US election. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the US currency less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Some industrial consumers were taking the opportunity of lower prices to buy, but Sandeep Daga, a director at the Metal Intelligence Centre, said he does not expect that to last. He expects LME copper could fall to as low as $7,000 a ton in the second quarter of 2025. LME aluminium dropped 2.3% to $2,587.50 a ton after surging by 5.3% on Friday after China announced it would cancel a 13% tax rebate for exports of aluminium products.

While the move is likely to reduce exports of semi-fabricated aluminium, Citi said in a note that it had left its three-month price target of $2,600 unchanged, saying the bullishness could dissipate. Lead gave up its gains and was down 0.1% at $1,955 a ton after LME inventories jumped by 49,500 tons or 27% to 234,725.

The inflow was likely a party delivering against a short or bearish position ahead of the November contract expiry on Wednesday, said Alastair Munro at broker Marex. A large net inflow of zinc into LME warehouses - 11,050 tons - was also probably a delivery by a short position holder, he added. LME zinc lost 0.9% to $2,921 a ton, nickel was little changed at $15,545 and tin edged up 0.4% at $28,850.